US presidential candidates are statistically tied in the polls

Monday, August 4, 2008

The two leading United States presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are statistically tied according to the latest Day to Day Politics Poll Average. Both the 7-day average and the 10-day average show that the difference between the two candidates is within the margin of error. Barack Obama is polling at 45.8% and John McCain is at 45.1%.

The lead for Obama has dropped by 4% in the last week, two weeks after his trip to Europe. There are about 4 weeks until the Democratic and Republican Conventions and about 9% of the public is still undecided, which is a 2% drop since last week.

The Day to Day Politics Poll Average for the past week used the Gallup Tracking poll, the Rasmussen Tracking poll, the CNN poll, and the USA Today/Gallup poll.

The battleground states of Florida and Ohio, are also showing no statistically significant lead for either of the two candidates. However, Pennsylvania shows a statistically significant lead for Obama. These three states have been key battleground states in the past two elections with the winner of two of these three states winning the White House.

Also, according to a new national poll, white workers give Obama the edge by 10 percent (47% for Obama, 37% for McCain), even though 1/6th of this voting group is undecided. Both parties agree that this group of voters will be a key voting bloc for victory. With 92 days left until the General Election, both parties will be campaigning heavily in the three major battleground states mentioned above and among this particular voting group.

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Sources

"Day to Day Politics Poll Average" — Day to Day Politics, August 4, 2008
"Gallup Daily: Obama 46%, McCain 43%" — The Gallup Organization, August 4, 2008
Alexander Mooney. "Obama trip abroad doesn't move poll numbers" — CNN, July 30, 2008
"Daily Presidential Tracking Poll" — Rasmussen Reports, August 4, 2008
"Obama's Surges After Europe Trip" — Day to Day Politics, July 28, 2008
Michael D. Shear and Jon Cohen. "Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group" — Washington Post, August 4, 2008
Peter A. Brown, Clay F. Richards, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Obama Tour Doesn't Help In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania" — Quinnipiac University, July 31, 2008

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