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On the campaign trail in the USA, June 2024

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Monday, July 22, 2024

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2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election

The following is the second edition of a monthly series chronicling the 2024 United States presidential election. It features original material compiled throughout the previous month after an overview of polling and the biggest stories of the month.

This month's spotlight on the campaign trail: a tale of two candidates who shared a viral moment in 2011 and have attained renewed relevance; the impact of the presidential debate on the betting odds for presidential candidates; and the actions of state Libertarian parties to reject their national presidential nominee.

Overview

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Polling

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At the start of June, in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of opinion polls, the presumptive US Republican Party presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump led the presumptive US Democratic Party presidential nominee, President Joe Biden, 46.9 percent to 46.3 percent in the head-to-head matchup. With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., presumptive US Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and independent candidate Cornel West included, Trump continued to lead with 41.9 percent to 39.7 percent for Biden, 10.4 percent for Kennedy, 2.0 percent for Stein, and 1.9 percent for West.

At the end of June, Trump led Biden in the head-to-head 47.0 percent to 44.6 percent. In the 5-way race, Trump led with 42.5 percent to 39.3 percent for Biden, 8.2 percent for Kennedy, 1.8 percent for West, and 1.5 percent for Stein.

  • President Trump Image: Shealah Craighead.
    President Trump
    Image: Shealah Craighead.
  • President Biden Image: Adam Schultz.
    President Biden
    Image: Adam Schultz.
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Image: Gage Skidmore.
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    Image: Gage Skidmore.
  • Jill Stein Image: Gage Skidmore.
    Jill Stein
    Image: Gage Skidmore.
  • Cornel West Image: Gage Skidmore.
    Cornel West
    Image: Gage Skidmore.

Biggest stories

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Democratic Party

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  • Concerned about the issue of illegal immigration, President Biden issued an Executive Order to put border security measures into place, including restrictions on asylum requests after daily unauthorized entries surpass 2,500. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, a Republican, criticized the order as "weak."
President Biden with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the G7 meeting in Italy.
Image: The White House.
  • President Biden traveled to Europe to commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the D-Day invasion and then attended the G7 conference. During the conference, Biden appeared to wander off and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni directed him back to the group.
  • A federal jury found the president's son, Hunter Biden, guilty of a felony gun offense. President Biden said he would not pardon or commute the sentence of his son. Biden supporters used the case and the president's lack of interference to counter former President Trump's narrative that Biden had used the Justice Department to persecute his political opponent, Trump, with lawfare.
  • Biden participated in a Juneteenth celebration and appeared to freeze on camera. Critics used this, along with video from a fundraiser showing former President Barack Obama guiding Biden off stage, as evidence of Biden's cognitive and physical decline. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre disputed the excerpted clips as "cheap fakes."
  • Biden prepped heavily ahead of the June 27 CNN debate with former President Trump. At the debate, Biden appeared lackadaisical, and, at times, spoke incoherently; leading Trump to quip, "I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don't think he knows what he said either." At one point Biden froze and in another he lost his train of thought when discussing Medicare. The debate left Democrats unsatisfied with Biden as the nominee. Some called on him to step down. The Biden team claimed the president had a cold. Biden acknowledged his poor performance and accused Trump of lying throughout the debate.
  • Commentator Bill O'Reilly reported at the end of June that the decision to replace Biden on the ticket had already been made. However, after a family meeting, The New York Times reported the Biden family remained supportive of the president's candidacy.

Republican Party

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  • Following his criminal conviction at the end of the previous month, President Trump continued to fundraise off his 34 count felony conviction. Fundraising totals of US$141 million in May pushed the Trump campaign ahead of Biden in terms of cash-on-hand, a lead Biden had long maintained. Democrats continued to use the "felon" label to attack Trump.
Former President Trump campaigns in Arizona.
Image: Gage Skidmore.
  • With the 2024 Republican National Convention looming in the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Trump candidly attacked Milwaukee as a “horrible city” during a meeting with House Republicans. Milwaukee's Democratic Mayor Cavalier Johnson criticized the comment as “bizarre” and “unhinged”, but Republicans claimed the media took it out of context.
  • On June 21, Trump held a rally at Temple University in Philadelphia, his first rally ever in the city. The rally continued the campaign's outreach to urban communities, particularly African Americans, while attempting to gain votes in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
  • After the presidential debate with Biden at which Trump received near-universal acclaim as the winner, Trump campaigned in Virginia with Governor Glenn Youngkin. During his speech, Trump described Biden as a "trainwreck" and questioned whether the country could survive five more months of his presidency.
  • By the end of June, Governor Youngkin received speculation as a potential running mate for Trump, alongside Senators Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina, and J. D. Vance of Ohio. Nevertheless, North Dakota Governor and 2024 presidential primary contender Doug Burgum appeared to be the odds-on favorite for the veepstakes.

Third Parties

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  • Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay endorsed Constitution Party nominee Randall Terry for president, believing Terry's anti-abortion candidacy could convince Biden supporters to support Trump.
  • The state Libertarian parties in Colorado and Montana refused to place Libertarian Party presidential nominee Chase Oliver on the ballot in their respective states, citing his left wing views on the issues.
  • Republicans helped progressive independent candidate Cornel West with ballot access, based on their belief he takes votes that would otherwise go to the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party sued to keep Kennedy off the New York ballot.
Logo for the US Pirate Party.
Image: US Pirate Party.
  • The Pirate Party nominated performance artist Vermin Supreme for president. It was the first time the party ever nominated anyone for president. The party does not currently have any ballot access.
  • Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr did not qualify for the June 27 CNN presidential debate, and despite his earlier complaint, the FEC did not make any comment on the matter. In lieu of participation, Kennedy answered questions asked during the debate at a separate event. The campaign edited his answers into a video of the debate, as if he participated, and posted it on social media.

Spotlight

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A tale of two candidates

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The serendipitously renewed relevance of Vermin Supreme and Randall Terry to presidential politics in June 2024 recalls an encounter between the two in late December 2011. Whereas now, the anti-abortion crusader Terry, with his hair grown out, campaigns across the country as the Constitution Party presidential nominee; in 2011, a clean-cut Terry took his pro-life message to the Democratic Party, seeking its 2012 presidential nomination. The performance artist Supreme, who still wears a rubber boot on his head, now as the newly christened nominee of the Pirate Party; in 2011 brought his satirical candidacy to the Democratic Party as well, also in hopes of winning its presidential nomination.

Vermin Supreme in December 2011.
Image: Marc Nozell.
Randall Terry in December 2011.
Image: Marc Nozell.

Terry and Supreme's paths crossed at the December 19 Lesser-Known Candidates Forum at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, just ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary. At the event, Terry and Supreme sat next to one another with the late John Wolfe Jr., a fellow candidate who died last year, beside Terry. During the forum, Terry expressed anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ views. When the opportunity arose, Supreme exclaimed that "Jesus told me to make Randall Terry gay" and proceeded to douse Terry with glitter, a glitter bombing. While doing so, Supreme shouted, "He's turning gay!" while onlookers, including Wolfe who received some second-hand glitter, laughed. Terry took the incident with good humor, calling Supreme "funny" and arguing that "Saturday Night Live should hire him as a writer."

Supreme glitter bombs Terry as Wolfe looks on.
Image: Marc Nozell.

To Wikinews, shortly after the forum, Supreme cited the 2011 glitter bombing of Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich as inspiration for his act. He described Terry as a "frenemy," recounting that the two first met at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Prior to the 2011 forum, Supreme offered to have sexual intercourse with Terry in the bathroom stall. Terry declined.

"It was the confluence of circumstances," recalled Supreme. "Myself running as a Democrat. Mr. Terry running as a Democrat. Our being alphabetically seated next to one another on the dias. Him being a vicious homophobe activist. Me being an unpredictable absurdist activist."

The glitter bombing had a slight pop cultural impact. The Gregory Brothers included it in their "Songify the News" segment as the song "Get Money, Turn Gay." Raw video of the exchange on YouTube surpassed 8 million views. Others were none too pleased. Saint Anselm College banned Supreme from the 2016 Lesser-Known Candidates Forum, but allowed him to return to the event last December.

Supreme at a DeSantis campaign event in January 2024.
Image: Marc Nozell.

Outside his antics, Supreme had his most successful political campaign in 2020 while seeking the Libertarian Party's presidential nomination. He finished third at the National Convention behind attorney Jacob Hornberger and eventual nominee Jo Jorgensen. His hand-picked running mate, Spike Cohen, won the party's vice presidential nomination. Since serving as Jorgensen's running mate, Cohen has become a prominent voice within the party. Supreme has since denounced the Libertarian Party after the rightist Mises Caucus took control last year. Returning to form, earlier this year, Supreme commandeered an event for Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, leading some, mistakenly, to believe DeSantis hired Supreme as the warm-up act.

This grab bag is what Supreme brings with him to the Pirate Party, a party that seeks reform of Intellectual property rights, government transparency, and protections for civil liberties and personal privacy. With Supreme's candidacy, the Pirate Party hopes to replicate the success other Pirate parties have enjoyed throughout the globe, particular in Iceland.

File:Constitution Party 2024 Presidential Ticket (cropped).jpg
Randall Terry in April 2024.
Image: US Constitution Party.

On the other hand, Terry has continued his anti-abortion activism, and has mounted a few additional candidacies since 2011. His major focus remains on airing ads depicting dead fetuses with hopes of shaping public opinion against abortion. His runs for office ensure free speech protections. This time, the far right Constitution Party, whose 2020 presidential nominee businessman Don Blankenship appeared on the ballot in 19 states and received 60,080 votes, facilitates Terry's activism.

In June, the campaign received its first major endorsement when former Republican House Majority Leader and Dancing with the Stars alum Tom DeLay officially endorsed Terry. DeLay cited Terry's anti-abortion campaign, and felt it could be successful in swaying voters away from the pro-choice Biden and toward the pro-life-adjacent Trump.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Image: Leon Perskie.
Governor Alf Landon of Kansas.
Image: Library of Congress.

Ballot access expert Richard Winger of Ballot Access News called this a "sophisticated argument," comparing it to the Communist Party's fielding of a ticket in the 1936 presidential election and using ads they felt would assist then-Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt against his Republican opponent Alf Landon.

"This type of thinking is bolstered," writes Winger, "by the book Predictably Irrational, which presents experimental evidence that when there are three choices, and two of the choices are somewhat similar but one of the two is superior to the other, that helps the superior choice defeat the dissimilar choice."

In June, Terry was announced as a participant in the July 12 Free & Equal Elections Foundation-sponsored Debate in Las Vegas. On X, Supreme noted his interest in attending the event to see Terry. Terry responded "Hello Vermin! Are you trying to glitter bomb me again sir?"

Wikinews attempted to contact both Terry and Supreme for this report but neither answered repeated inquiries

Debate impact on election betting odds

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According to the site ElectionBettingOdds.com, the betting odds of victory in the 2024 presidential election for former President Trump, President Biden, and others shifted significantly after Trump and Biden participated in the CNN-moderated debate June 27 in Atlanta. The data provides interesting insights into the course of the election as it unfolds.

John Stossel in 2018.
Image: Gage Skidmore.

ElectionBettingOdds.com, which veteran broadcast journalist John Stossel and fellow journalist Maxim Lott, own, takes an average percentage score for the odds of victory for political candidates from sites on which customers bet on the outcome of elections. Sites used in the calculation include: FTX, Betfair, PredictIt, Smarkets, and Polymarket. On its "Why This Beats Polls" tab, ElectionBettingOdds.com cites studies showing how betting odds work better as a predictor of election outcomes than opinion polling. This is due to certain bettors' insider information, the consideration of circumstances beyond polling, the fact that bettors "put their money where their mouths are," in contrast to pollsters and pundits, and the concept of the "wisdom of crowds."

Van Jones in 2016.
Image: Senate Democrats.

According to the data on the site, updated every minute, about 24 hours before the start of the debate, Trump's chances for victory stood at 55.6 percent with Biden behind at 36.1 percent. Those numbers remained steady throughout most of the day. Then, as the debate culminated with Biden's misstatements and confused responses, Biden's chances took a nosedive. By 9:35 CDT, as the debate closed, Biden had a 29.3 percent chance of victory with Trump at 59.1 percent. As media pundits weighed in, with CNN commentator Van Jones calling Biden's performance "painful," Biden fell further to 24.4 percent, with Trump rising to 60.7 percent. California Governor Gavin Newsom's odds rose to 7.5 percent with rumors he could potentially replace Biden on the ticket.

The next morning, Biden's chances leveled off at 20.1 percent, a 16 percent drop from the previous day. Trump fell slightly to 59.7 percent as Newsom rose to 10.6 percent, just ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris at 4.8 percent. This came as voices within the Democratic Party, including half of its voters, as well as the editorial boards for The New York Times, The New Yorker, The Economist, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Chicago Tribune called on Biden to step down as the nominee.

As June ended, Trump still led the betting odds with 57.5 percent, followed by Biden at 20.0 percent, Newsom at 6.8 percent, Harris at 5.0 percent, and former First Lady Michelle Obama at 4.7 percent.

  • Gavin Newsom Image: Bureau of Reclamation.
    Gavin Newsom
    Image: Bureau of Reclamation.
  • Kamala Harris Image: Arlington National Cemetary.
    Kamala Harris
    Image: Arlington National Cemetary.
  • Michelle Obama Image: The White House.
    Michelle Obama
    Image: The White House.

Libertarians reject nominee

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Nomination dissatisfaction extended to the Libertarian Party. The party's nomination of LGBTQ activist Chase Oliver for president in May caused three state level parties to reject the nomination in June. The Libertarian Party of Colorado (LPCO) and the Libertarian Party of Montana (LPMT) both refused to certify the nomination of Oliver with their respective secretaries of state, denying ballot access. The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire (LPNH) pulled material support for the ticket of Oliver and his running mate Mike ter Maat, but retained ballot access.

LPCO logo.
Image: Libertarian Party of Colorado.

"LPCO has always stood firmly for liberty, principled opposition to overreaching government, and the promotion of individual freedoms. Our commitment to these values guides our decisions and actions," the LPCO wrote in an official press release on X. "Tonight, the LPCO Board passed a resolution affirming our dedication to these principles by deciding not to submit paperwork to place the Oliver/ter Maat ticket on the Colorado Presidential ballot."

Oliver campaigns in 2023.
Image: Gage Skidmore.

The release speculated that the party membership wanted to disavow Oliver for his left wing views, specifically, support for "gender-affirming care" for children, and his support for the Russian collusion conspiracy theory. It also criticized vice presidential nominee ter Maat for making jokes about the criminal verdict against former President Trump. While it praised the ticket for its anti-war position, it did not believe this alone warranted its support.

As for potential replacement nominations, LPCO communications director Jordan Marinovich tells Wikinews: "We are considering all of our options in regards to a nominee and the goal is to complete this process as quickly as possible."

Wikinews reached out to the leadership of the LPMT but did not receive any response. On the party's official X account it declares:

"The Montana Libertarian Party has officially rejected Chase Oliver as our presidential candidate. We have maintained that we will always prioritize Montana first, and we do not believe his campaign advances our goals in this state. Similarly situated states should follow our lead, and we call upon the LNC to consider suspending and replacing him."

LPNH logo.
Image: Libertarian Party of New Hampshire.

Though the LPNH also disavowed the ticket, it was unable to remove it from the ballot due to state ballot access laws. On X, the party maintains: "Whether [Oliver] is foolish, lacking in courage, or intentionally subversive, it is clear that he does not possess the necessary traits for libertarian victory."

Furthermore, it offers no support to the ticket due to Oliver's views on wearing COVID-19 masks, supporting the "chemical castration" of and drag shows for children, endorsing critical race theory, and supporting limits on free speech.

As June came to a close, Independent Political Report uncovered an effort among some Libertarian Party delegates to decertify Oliver as the party's nominee due to purported malfeasance during May's National Convention. Wikinews continues to monitor the latest developments on this matter as July comes around on the campaign trail.


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Sources

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Wikinews
Wikinews
 This article features first-hand journalism by Wikinews members. See the collaboration page for more details.
Wikinews
Wikinews
 This article features first-hand journalism by Wikinews members. See the collaboration page for more details.
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